June 21, 2026: Ukrainian drones have been devastating refineries and petroleum storage sites in western Russia. That caused intermittent shortages for civilian customers. Despite that Russia is exporting the most crude since its invasion of Ukraine back in 2022 as Ukraine’s persistent attacks on Russian oil refineries force more petroleum into the worldwide market.

Current Russian oil shipments are the highest they have been since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. The international efforts to sanction Russian oil exports have largely failed. The reasons are simple. Russia moves oil via hundreds of shadow fleet tankers that do not identify themselves as Russian. The Americans have their navy stopping , checking and seizing tankers carrying Russian oil. This is not enough to stop the flow, If the Americans take stronger measures, like putting warships near Russian oil export ports and seizing shadow tankers, the Russians could declare this an act of war and that sort of thing could escalate to levels no one in Russia or the west wants to see. Russia is taking advantage of the American aversion to war over oil and keep their shadow fleet moving the oil to customers willing to risk American sanctions if caught accepting this oil.

Let us not forget that Russia has persistent problems with lawlessness. Twenty years ago t he extent of lawlessness in Russia, and the power of criminal gangs, could be seen in the sale of gasoline, diesel and fuel oil. Police estimated that about a quarter of these sales were illegal, evading all taxes. Bribing, intimidating, or simply evading, government officials made it possible. This inefficiency extends, as it always did, to the police, security services and military.

Meanwhile China is stockpiling food, oil, coal and essential raw materials to sustain the population and the military in the event of a war with the Americans. One of the problems with stockpiling petroleum is that the Americans have developed increasingly effective methods to sanction Russian petroleum exports. China depends on Persian Gulf oil which was blocked by the war with Israel and the Americans. In the event of a war over Taiwan, the Americans, or the Indonesians by themselves, could easily shut down the Persian Gulf to China oil route. China and Iran have been economic and military allies for decades. In response, the Americans have imposed several rounds of economic sanctions against both countries.

The growing Chinese stockpiles are meant to keep the Chinese economy and military operational long enough to negotiate an end to the war. Currently China imports about 75 percent of the oil and nearly half the natural gas it requires. Protecting these stockpiles is difficult and expensive. There have been failures, six years ago Chinese officials were aghast when they discovered that the oil reserve containers were full of water and sewage. Corrupt oil storage officials had sold off the oil and pocketed the proceeds. Some of those officials put the money in overseas banks but were caught and punished. Others were quick to leave China after transferring the oil money in foreign bank accounts

Chinese plans for economic survival during wartime are vague and disjointed and slogging, not walking or running, towards their objectives. This is another reason why China does not want a war with the Americans because the Americas and Europe purchase most Chinese exports. Disrupting that commerce would have long-term implications since most of these Chinese customers would seek other suppliers and many of those suppliers would remain after the war ended.